07/20/06 Times Union Blog: Marist Poll

Newsday Editorials
Lawrence C. Levy
A primary is just the ticket for Hillary Clinton
July 19, 2006

Sen. Hillary Clinton was having a pretty cool day Monday, even for the world's most famous woman and the far-out-front-runner for her party's 2008 presidential nod.

That morning, Rupert Murdoch, the conservative founder of the Fox News Network, whose biggest stars bash her on TV for a living, held a fundraiser for the supposedly (but not) liberal Democrat at his Manhattan digs. Later, she was cheered at a pro-Israel rally organized by Jewish groups that once booed her.

The news that day contained two other Clinton image-burnishing stories: one, that she had raised more money from more people than any Senate candidate in the country (more than $22 million in her campaign war chest), money that could be used to seed a presidential bid in 2008. And, two, that conservative Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.) had sprung to her defense against Bush administration lawyers during an Armed Services Committee hearing.

But Monday turned out not to be so great a Clinton day when it became clear that a political unknown, Jon Tasini, had compiled more than the 15,000 signatures needed to force a primary in the Senate race.

And suddenly, to the chagrin of her aides and long before she wanted it, Clinton faces the first test of how much her moderate (critics would say "triangulated") positions have hurt her with the party's rank and file.

I'm betting not much.

This is a race more about 2008 than 2006, more about the ability of the party to attract swing moderate voters and win nationally. Clinton should welcome the challenge as more of an opportunity than an obstacle. It's a chance to show, once again, that she's not afraid of her critics and that her support is as wide and deep as it is well earned by her hard work.

For the good of a party that needs to meld the liberal and moderate wings behind one strong candidate in 2008, she even should do what her advisers say she shouldn't: Debate Tasini.

If she can't take a shot now on her nuanced support for the war in Iraq from a no-name, how will she handle John Kerry or Russ Feingold?

Sure there is a risk for Clinton. No, Tasini won't have enough money to run an effective ad campaign, and it's doubtful he'll get much media coverage, especially if Clinton's friend Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.) survives an insurgency based on his support for the Iraq war in his primary next month. So it's arguable this isn't a fair test of her strengths and weaknesses anywhere - both locally and nationally.

But Democratic primary voters tend to be up to speed on the issues and sympathetic to liberal candidates, and this will be the first time they have a chance to express - not to a pollster but in the privacy of the booth - disaffection from Clinton's centrism.

If Tasini takes more than, say, a third of the vote, she could "lose" in winning. (The same way President Lyndon Johnson "lost" when his challenger, Sen. Eugene McCarthy, got nearly 40 percent in the 1968 New Hampshire primary.) If Clinton won only 65 percent against Tasini (she won her last primary 85-15), it would embolden the country's leftists and foment stories about how the party's "rock star" has, well, a guitar of clay.

This race is a chance for her to silence the lefty nay-sayers.

Tasini, certainly, is disaffected. When Clinton was pledging unwavering support of Israel in Lebanon, he said her "one-sided position will . . . fan the flames of violence." When she did not back gay marriage after the state Court of Appeals ruled it illegal, he said: "Discrimination is discrimination . . . and Hillary Clinton obviously does not get it."

When he filed Thursday, he said: "More than 2,500 American men and women will never come home . . . because of Hillary Clinton's vote for this illegal and immoral war."

There are reasonable responses to all of these charges (even though Tasini makes arguable points on gay marriage and Lebanon). Now is the time for Clinton to make them - not on the cozy Senate floor but on the streets or even face to face.

Lawrence C. Levy is a columnist and member of Newsday's editorial board.


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